Kerry's "Incumbent Rule" Lead Shrinks



On Monday, I took the state-by-state polls from 2.004k.com and applied the incumbent rule -- taking undecideds and assigning them 3:1 to Kerry. You might recall my analysis showed a Kerry lead of 311-227 in the Electoral College.

It might just be random polling variation, or perhaps the race is tightening, but today's analysis shows a smaller Kerry lead of 296-242.

Here's my list of the closest states right now:



Notice if Kerry gets a net 2 percentage point bump from high turnout, he'll quickly pick up an additional 31 electoral votes. And I've looked at the internals of the Minnesota poll which 2.004k.com is reporting, and it oversamples Republicans. In the end I believe Kerry will win Minnesota, but it's tighter than I'd like.

There's been some commentary that the key to this election is Wisconsin, which Bush would need to combine with Iowa and New Mexico in order to replace Ohio. I disagree. Bush's continuing weakness in Florida is the key to this election -- if he can't put away his brother's home state, a southern state to boot, why does anyone think Bush will close better in Wisconsin, Iowa, or New Mexico?

In my judgment the odds still favor Kerry. But, as you've heard before, the key is high Democratic turnout.

Remember to vote. Remember to remind your neighbors, family, and friends to vote. Volunteer to do GOTV.

Posted: Thu - October 28, 2004 at 10:35 PM        

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