Kerry's Southern Strategy



The latest Gallup poll in Wisconsin (49-46 Bush) creates an unusual scenario in the latest "Incumbent Rule" poll. This takes Wisconsin out of Kerry's column if undecideds break for Kerry at a 2:1 or 3:2 ratio, resulting in a 287-251 Kerry victory.

If undecideds break 2:1 or 3:2 for Kerry, he wins the election with Arkansas and Florida, but loses Ohio and Wisconsin.

An unusual scenario, to be sure, but that's where the poll data takes me. I report, you decide.

Here's the latest chart on the closest states - with a 3:1 undecided break Kerry barely hangs on to Ohio and Arizona for 317 EV:



For what it's worth, the difference between a 3:1 undecided break for Kerry and a 2:1 break is about 0.4 percentage points in net margin. At 2:1 Kerry loses both Ohio and Arizona for a 287-251 victory.

(edited to fix math problems)

Posted: Sun - October 31, 2004 at 11:19 PM        

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