Today's "Incumbent Rule" Poll - Kerry 327, Bush 211



Today's "Incumbent Rule" poll of polls shows John Kerry with a lead of 327 electoral votes to 211 EV for George Bush. This assumes a 3:1 break of undecided voters against the incumbent. If undecideds break 2:1 or 3:2, Kerry receives 297 EV to Bush's 241.

The states that change based on the difference between 3:1 and 2:1 are Ohio (20 EV) and Arizona (10 EV). Subjectively, looking at the range of polls, I believe Kerry is likely to win Ohio in any event, and not likely to win Arizona (or if Kerry does win AZ it will be part of an unpredicted high turnout landslide). Of this list, I also think New Mexico (5 EV) and Arkansas (6 EV) are a bit iffy -- certainly iffier than Ohio.

Taking NM, AZ, and AR from Kerry still leaves him with a 306-232 EV lead.

It's significant that, in the five days I've been doing this, Bush has never led. Four of the last five days Kerry has held a substantial lead, and Bush was only able to achieve a 269-269 tie on one day, based solely on unusual polling results that popped up that day in Minnesota and Florida.

The early leading indicators of how well Kerry is doing on election night are Florida (duh) and Virginia. Bush has never been able to put Kerry away in Virginia. If Kerry gets a net bump of about 3-4 points from high Democratic turnout, he could win Virginia. If Virginia gets called for Kerry, he will be on his way to a 350+ electoral vote landslide.

Here's the daily table of close states:

Posted: Sun - October 31, 2004 at 02:42 PM        

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