Today's "Incumbent Rule" Results - Kerry over Bush, 317-221



Those wacky state-by-state polls throw us for another loop. Applying the "incumbent rule" -- assigning undecided voters on a 3:1 basis to the challenger, John Kerry, against the incumbent, George Bush, today's estimated result is:

Kerry 317
Bush 221

What's the difference? Florida (27 EV) goes back to Kerry (with no new poll information - 2.004k.com now uses The Florida Poll [Kerry, 48-46] instead of Rasmussen [Bush 50-45]); and Kerry takes Arkansas (6 EV), Arizona (10 EV), and New Mexico (5 EV) on the basis of new polls. I also give Iowa (7 EV) to Kerry even though applying the incumbent rule results in an exact tie (49.5 to 49.5).

Using a 2:1 or 3:2 split for the incumbent rule results in a 280-258 victory for Kerry. The lower ratios swing Arizona, Ohio, and Iowa from Kerry to Bush.

For what it's worth my subjective judgment is that the last Ohio poll is a bit of an outlier, and that Kerry will win Ohio. I also think that the last Arizona poll (47-42 Bush) is a bit much -- assigning Arizona to Kerry on the basis of the incumbent rule seems to be a bit of a reach. My subjective "adjustment" to these numbers results in a Kerry lead of 300-238 (280 plus Ohio).

Here's the latest numbers on the closest states:

Posted: Sat - October 30, 2004 at 07:47 PM        

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